By NAFTALI BENDAVID

WASHINGTON—Democrats for the first time are acknowledging that Republicans could retake the Senate this November if everything falls into place for the GOP, less than two years after Democrats held a daunting 60-seat majority.

Leaders of both parties have believed for months that Republicans could win the House, where every lawmaker faces re-election. But a change of party control in the Senate, where only a third of the members are running and Republicans must capture 10 seats, seemed out of the question.

That’s no longer the case. The emergence of competitive Republican candidates in Wisconsin, Washington and California—Democratic-leaning states where polls now show tight races—bring the number of seats that Republicans could seize from the Democrats to 11.

Democrats now control the Senate 59-41—after the death of Democratic Sen. Edward M. Kennedy, who was replaced by Republican Sen. Scott Brown—including two independents who usually vote with them. That means Republicans need 10 seats to take a 51-49 advantage.

Republicans would have to win virtually every competitive race to retake the Senate, without losing any seats of their own—clearly an uphill climb. The trouble for Democrats is that many trends are against them. Surveys show that Republicans are more motivated than Democrats to go to the polls, and that voters are looking for new leadership in Congress.

“I think there is definitely a chance” of losing the Senate, said Democratic strategist Gary Nordlinger, a Washington-based media consultant. “I wouldn’t call it a probability, but there is certainly a chance.”

“Republicans still have to [win] all the competitive races in order to get to a majority, but at least there are enough seats on the table to pull it off,” said Nathan Gonzales, political editor of the non-partisan Rothenberg Political Report.

Democratic politicians have been saddled with an economy that they’d hoped–and predicted–would be doing much better by now. And if Republicans retake one or both chambers of Congress, it would create a serious roadblock for President Barack Obama’s agenda. But Republicans would also have greater responsibility for tackling stubborn problems such as the economy, energy and immigration.

As the races warmed up this spring and summer, Republicans raised more money than Democrats. In a dozen of the closest Senate contests reviewed by The Wall Street Journal, the GOP candidates as a group claimed 58% of contributions raised during the three-month period ending June 30. Democrats in those races, as a group, had a slim lead in total cash on hand.

Former Sen. Norm Coleman, a Minnesota Republican who lost his seat to onetime comedian Al Franken in 2008, is CEO of American Action Network, a conservative group that’s spending about $750,000 to defeat three-term Sen. Patty Murray in Washington State. “Races like Wisconsin, California and Washington are clearly in play,” Mr. Coleman said.

Many Democrats dismiss the notion that they’re in danger of losing the Senate. “I believe that is wishful thinking,” said Sen. Bob Menendez of New Jersey, who coordinates the Democrats’ Senate campaigns. He added that the chances are minimal that Republicans would win so many of the seats in play while losing none of their own.

The math and the map show why Wisconsin, Washington and California are important.

Many Democratic strategists consider three seats all but lost—in North Dakota and Delaware, where popular Republicans are running for seats left open by Democratic departures, and in Arkansas, where Sen. Blanche Lincoln is trailing significantly in polls. Additionally, an Indiana seat, also open after a Democratic retirement, will be hard to retain.

Four other Democrat seats are tossups: in Pennsylvania, Illinois, Colorado and Nevada. If Republicans capture those eight seats, and win two of the three newly competitive races in Washington, Wisconsin and California, they would retake the Senate.

Then there’s Florida, where Gov. Charlie Crist, after leaving the GOP to run as an independent, holds a lead. Senate Democrats believe he will align with them if he wins.

Democrats say that GOP primary voters boosted Democratic chances by selecting several tea party-inspired candidates who are proving to be too conservative or anti-government for the general electorate.

Wisconsin has emerged as a test of that claim. In the weeks before the Republican convention in late May, Ron Johnson, who hasn’t held political office, began appearing at tea party rallies. Tall and silver-haired, he proved a commanding speaker.

Mr. Johnson provided copies of his speeches to local talk radio hosts, and conservative host Charlie Sykes read excerpts over the air. Mr. Johnson jumped into the race six days before the convention, pledging to spend millions on the campaign. “He literally came out of nowhere,” said Brian Westrate, chairman of the Eau Claire County GOP.

Mr. Johnson built his successful company, which makes a specialty plastic for packaging, from the ground up, and it exports to various countries including China. But he also has made comments Democrats have seized on, such as asking in a March speech, “How is Social Security different from a giant Ponzi scheme?” Democrats are using that quote to suggest Mr. Johnson is radically anti-government. Mr. Johnson rejects the idea. “The problem is that Social Security funds have been spent,” he said in an interview. “They’re gone. I’m just describing the problem.”

Wisconsin’s Democratic Sen. Russ Feingold, meanwhile, says he’s not taking the threat lightly. His campaign held 132 events the week of July 4 alone, and he has hosted town hall meetings in each of Wisconsin’s 72 counties.

“I’m sure it will be close, but I’m used to that,” Mr. Feingold said. “I will personally fight for every vote.”

On many on high-profile, issues, Mr. Feingold has been able to separate himself from the Washington establishment that is now so unpopular. Last week, he was the sole Democratic senator to oppose the new bank regulation law, saying it was too weak.

They want to put me in the box of the classic Washington incumbent,” Mr. Feingold said. “But people in Washington don’t think I’m a classic Washington incumbent; they think I’m a pain in the neck. They’re going after the wrong guy with those arguments.”

Still, the candidates are essentially tied in early polls. Vicki Burke, who chairs the La Crosse County Democrats, said that “in talking to people who work in [Mr. Feingold's] campaign, they think, given the atmosphere, that this could be the first time where he could possibly lose a race.”

In Washington State, Sen. Murray also faces a vigorous challenge. GOP leaders worked hard to persuade former state Sen. Dino Rossi to run. He faces a primary challenge from former professional football player Clint Didier, who’s been endorsed by Sarah Palin.

Mr. Rossi, who has run strong but unsuccessful statewide races twice before, is off to a fast fund-raising start. He has brought in $1.4 million since entering the race a month ago, compared with the $1.6 million Ms. Murray raised over the past three months. Ms. Murray, who’s been raising money for a longer time, has $6.8 million in her coffers overall.

Washington State Democrats say they are confident Ms. Murray will prevail, but some say it won’t be easy. “I think she will have a tough race, but I certainly hope she wins,” said Norm Osterman, treasurer of the Walla Walla County Democrats. “All Democrats are having a tougher time this fall.”

In California, Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer has a slight lead in most polls over Republican Carly Fiorina, former chief executive of Hewlett-Packard Co.

Ms. Boxer has $11.3 million in cash to $620,000 for Ms. Fiorina, but Ms. Fiorina has the ability to spend money from her own fortune.

The state has struggled with budget problems that its leaders seem incapable of fixing, souring Californians on incumbents.

In a recent Field Poll, 43% approved of the job Ms. Boxer is doing, among her lowest ratings ever. While she led Ms. Fiorina 47%-44% in the Field Poll, that was down from a 30-point lead in March 2009.

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With Governor Christie, A Star is Born

By Dennis Kneale

February 18, 2010

At long last I have found my new hero. He is rotund and profound, graced with a hint of “Sopranos” and a hefty dose of obstinate common sense.
He is Chris Christie, the newly elected governor of New Jersey, and this morning on CNBC’s “Squawkbox” he his first national TV appearance since his Obama-smiting election—and Christie crushed it.

The rookie governor, who faintly resembles the actor Steve Schirripa, the Big & Tall “Bacala” on “The Sopranos,” has a message for all of government—a simple, anti-spending, anti-tax declaration of “Enough!” It needs to go viral. Take this video clip and post it on YouTube, resend it to Twitter and Facebook, and zap it out to your entire e-mail list.

This guy is a blunt-spoken political star in the making. He warned of a state budget deficit that will run past $11 billion in 2011—and then he declared what is unthinkable in the Era of Obama: He won’t raise taxes to fix it. Cut spending, period.

“We know that we’ve taxed too much, we’ve spent too much and we’ve borrowed too much,” Gov. Christie said on-air. “The only way to fix that is to stop spending so much—it’s the only way to do it.”

Wait a minute, anchor Becky Quick prodded him—you won’t raise taxes? “No, we’re not raising taxes—that’s it,” Gov. Christie retorted. Not even property taxes? “We can’t,” he declared, noting that in four years $70 billion in wealth had fled New Jersey “because we are the most overtaxed people in America.”

“We’ve done enough of that already,” he said. “It’s time to get tough, and to say no.” Fuhgeddaboudit!

The way Gov. Christie said it made me feel this wasn’t just some handler-crafted talking point softened with mealy-mouthed hedges like, “We’ll have study it.” Nope, this came straight from the gut—and this governor has quite an abundant gut; it was uttered with dead-eyed certainty.

And I believed him.

So did New Jersey resident Michael Pento, a fiscal conservative at Delta Global Advisors who is a frequent guest on CNBC. “I was blown away,” he says. “Cut spending—how radical!” He notes that in ten years the U.S.’s Gross Domestic Product grew from $10 trillion to $14 trillion, up 40%; yet the federal budget rose more than 100% from $1.8 trillion to $3.8 trillion in the same period.

The governor pointed out that New Jersey has the highest taxes in the nation already, leading to the drain of $70 billion in wealth moving out of the state. Tax increases only would make that drain worse.

And he cited a stunning stat: A 42-year-old state government worker in New Jersey who gets a 20-year pension has paid in all of $124,000—and will take out $3.8 million in payments and health coverage for the rest of his life.

This simply can’t continue, yet few other politicians are talking about the government pension bubble that could bankrupt some cities. A new report from the Pew Center on the States says states have promised to pay $3.35 trillion to current and retired workers—and are running $1 trillion short in funding that obligation.

The worst-off state: President Obama’s home state of Illinois, which has funded only 54% of what it will have to pay out. Unions now represent 40% of all government workers, and they are especially powerful at the local and state levels. Given the Dems’ union ties, ya gotta question whether benefit cuts are a viable option, as I wrote about here.

But I now hold out new hope, thanks to Gov. Christie of New Jersey. He brings a fresh new face and a voluble, emphatic voice to politics. Let us pray we hear a lot more from him.

Rumana Chosen to Serve on Lt Gov Guadagno’s Red Tape Panel

From PCRRO.ORG

Assembly Republican Leader Alex DeCroce APPOINTS Assembly Deputy Conference Leader Scott Rumana TO SERVE ON RED TAPE REVIEW GROUP

Assembly Republican Leader Alex DeCroce announced that he has named Assembly Deputy Conference Leader Scott Rumana, R-Passaic and Bergen, to serve on Gov. Christie’s Red Tape Review Group. The group was established under Executive Order 3, signed by the governor on Jan. 20.

“Assemblyman Rumana’s legislative experience and private sector background make him an excellent choice to serve on the panel,” said DeCroce, R-Morris and Passaic. “Improving New Jersey’s economy is a top priority and establishing the Red Tape Review Group is one of the first steps in that effort. I am confident that Scott’s insights will be extremely valuable in helping the group achieve its objective.”

The executive order directs the group to review rules, regulations and executive orders that have been promulgated and to assess their impact on New Jersey’s economy. The bi-partisan committee will provide a report to the governor within 90 days with detailed recommendations on whether to repeal or amend any regulations that are harmful to the state’s economic development. Lieutenant Governor Kim Guadagno will chair the panel.

“Our state’s business community has been negatively impacted by the plethora of outdated rules that have often thwarted their ability to compete with other states, and even in the global marketplace,” said Rumana. “A thorough review of the factors which contribute to this problem is imperative if we are serious about creating economic development in New Jersey.

“I appreciate the opportunity to represent our caucus and will not hesitate in expressing my opinion,” continued Rumana. “I am certain the group’s objective of offering constructive suggestions aimed at encouraging growth in our state will be met.

Christie’s Bluster Continues To Please

Courier News / Home News Tribune

January 29, 2010

It’s still a little strange to see a Republican hitting all the right populist notes.

But that’s what New Jersey has in Gov. Chris Christie, and we continue to appreciate the defiant tone as we await — we hope — meaningful action behind it.

Item No. 1 this week was Christie’s decision to skip the New Jersey Chamber of Commerce train trip to Washington — the annual schmoozefest of business leaders, lawmakers and hangers-on that encapsulates much of what’s wrong with the state’s political machinations.

Christie said he and his staff are too busy to go — a bit of grandstanding but an appropriate message. Whether it has anything to do with the Chamber’s support of former Gov. Jon Corzine in last year’s election doesn’t really matter; we appreciate snubbing the party train.

Item No. 2 is Christie blasting the $313,000 salary received by Passaic Valley Sewerage Commission director Bryan Christiansen as appalling, noting that the commission gets most of its money from disadvantaged ratepayers.

Bravo. That kind of salary is appalling, and Christie has vowed to streamline and eliminate New Jersey’s web of wasteful commissions and authorities that are too often turned into patronage dens. Christie’s office last week released a series of transition team reports on the state’s government operations, and among many recommendations was a review of the sewerage commission’s use of consultants despite having a professional staff. We can certainly support that, as well as another recommendation that would provide the governor with veto power over many such agencies that typically operate autonomously.

It is revealing that a Passaic Valley commissioner responded that the authority had tightened its belts and become more transparent recently. That acknowledges past excess and secrecy, and yet we’re supposed to believe that it has now somehow cleaned up its act so thoroughly that no further reforms are needed? Even with that outrageous director’s salary in place?

The true test of Christie’s leadership will, of course, be his actions rather than his words and how successful he is in delivering promised reforms. But we’ll give him this right now: He knows what so many New Jerseyans want and need to hear, and he’s willing to say it. That alone is refreshing.

SHOT HEARD ‘ROUND THE WORLD
By DICK MORRIS
Published on TheHill.com on January 19, 2010

Scott Brown’s win of the Senate seat vacated by Ted Kennedy means that any Republican can win at any time in any place. Such are the fortunes to which the Democratic Party has fallen under the ministrations of President Barack Obama.Will this latest defeat, coming on top of the loss of New Jersey and Virginia, reduce the conceit of this man? Will it cause him to second-guess the course he has staked out for his party and our nation? Not bloody likely.But what it will do is bring good Republican candidates out of the woodwork to challenge incumbent Democrats who hold seats once thought to be unassailable.

Throughout the nation, the same pattern repeats itself: Democratic incumbents running in districts they had assumed to be safe but which are safe no more. But, again and again, there is no viable Republican who has, as yet, stepped up to challenge them. You can’t beat somebody with nobody. And the Republican Party has a candidate shortage.

As of this writing, there are no strong candidates to challenge Democratic Sens. Patty Murray (Wash.), Ron Wyden (Ore.), Kirsten Gillibrand (N.Y.), Evan Bayh (Ind.) and Russ Feingold (Wis.). Yet each of these senators is vulnerable. If Ted Kennedy’s seat can go Republican, so can theirs.

Right now, the Republicans will likely hold all their open Senate seats. Of the six seats held by retiring Republicans, only Missouri, Ohio and New Hampshire are really in play, and the GOP candidate in each of the three holds a strong lead.

Then there are five Democratic seats likely to fall to the Republicans.

* The Delaware seat vacated by Vice President Joe Biden will probably go to Mike Castle (R), the at-large congressman who has won 11 statewide races since 1980. Biden’s son, Beau Biden, has made noises about running, but he will probably read the handwriting on the wall and stay home.

* When Sen. Byron Dorgan (D) dropped out, he basically conceded his North Dakota seat to Gov. John Hoeven, a highly popular Republican.

* Michael Bennet (D), the senator appointed to fill the Colorado seat held by Ken Salazar, faces a strong challenge from Jane Norton, the popular former lieutenant governor. She’ll probably win.

* Arkansas Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D) has defied her state one too many times when she voted for healthcare. She’ll pay the price in November.

* As will Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.), who lags behind both of his possible opponents. With his son running for governor, Reid may not even run for fear of dragging his boy down with him. The family needs one of them to be in office. It’s how they make their money.

That brings the GOP to 45 seats.

Next are two races where the Republican has a good chance:

* In Pennsylvania, part-time Republican, part-time Democrat and full-time opportunist Sen. Arlen Specter is running for reelection in a primary against Democratic Rep. Joe Sestak. Don’t count on Specter staying in the race. And count on his losing the primary if he does. The Republican, Pat Toomey, should win the race in November easily against Specter, with more difficulty against Sestak.

* Obama’s Senate seat is up in Illinois and Mark Kirk, the Republican congressman who has taken the lead in pushing for vigorous sanctions against Iran, is tied with his potential Democratic rivals. We should pick up both seats. That’d be 47.

In California, Carly Fiorina is only a few points behind Sen. Barbara Boxer (D). It’s hard to imagine California going Republican, but easier than to have visualized Massachusetts doing so. That would make 48.

But then the Republican Party runs out of candidates.  Anyone want a Senate seat? Gillibrand (or Harold Ford, if he wins the primary) will not be hard to defeat. Murray won with only 55 percent of the vote last time. Wyden got only 54 percent. Bayh is from solidly Republican Indiana, and Feingold is too liberal for anyplace this side of Cuba.

Hopefully, the Brown race will kindle the fires of ambition in incipient candidates in these key states. They need to win at least three of the five to take control.